Special Report: U.S. Sports Betting – Sizing The Post-PASPA Opportunity
GamblingCompliance’s report, "U.S. Sports Betting – Sizing The Post-PASPA Opportunity", includes proprietary revenue estimates for a 2019-2023 rollout of the U.S. market under Base-, Bull- and Bear-Case legislative scenarios, which take account of state-specific legal and lobbying factors that will determine how quickly, and where, sports betting will expand across America following the end of the federal ban.
The report concludes, among other things:
Sports betting will be legal in 25 to 37 states by 2023, assuming that gaming and sports interests can reach a degree of common ground on sports-wagering policy. Even in the highly unlikely event that no further states pass laws for sports betting, the market would still be worth more than $1.1bn by 2023.
Federal legislation for sports betting is a distant prospect, so a state-by-state expansion of divergent regimes can be expected with no one-size-fits-all regulatory model. Online and mobile betting represents by far the largest opportunity from a revenue perspective, but a majority of states are likely to limit lawful wagering to land-based outlets, at least initially. Meanwhile, local legal and lobbying hurdles are likely to compromise approval of sports-betting laws, or limit their scope, in several major states, including California.
Key regulatory issues for U.S. policymakers include tax rates, potential restrictions on data sources and whether to limit online betting "skins". Meanwhile, specific legal obstacles at state level include state constitutional restrictions, the terms of tribal gaming compacts and what constitutes a lawful "lottery" game under laws governing state lotteries.
Although a $3.1bn-$5.3bn sports-betting market would account for just a small portion of the wider U.S. gaming industry in revenue terms, the repeal of PASPA means America is on track to become the largest sports-betting market in the world within the next five years, surpassing the UK and potentially also China.
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