Twelve months on from the U.S. Supreme Court’s historic ruling on sports betting, updated forecasts from GamblingCompliance project the U.S. market for lawful sports wagering will grow to $5.7bn in annual revenue and spread to 34 states by 2024.
GamblingCompliance’s new base-case forecasts would establish the U.S. as the largest regulated sports-betting market in the world other than China, even without legalization in California, Florida or Texas where legislative efforts remain complicated by legal and political obstacles.
Under GamblingCompliance’s more optimistic bull-case scenario, which includes a limited rollout in California and Florida, the U.S. market is projected to expand to 40 states and $7.9bn in revenue by 2024.
GamblingCompliance previously estimated the U.S. market to be worth $3.1bn to $5.2bn by 2023, assuming participation by 25 to 37 states.
The upgraded forecasts reflect various factors, including the positive launch of online betting in New Jersey; legislative momentum at state level, especially regarding the inclusion of online/mobile wagering in states’ enabling laws; and continued strong growth in the European online sports-betting sector.
Online/mobile sports betting is expected to account for almost $4bn of the projected overall $5.7bn market in 2024, while a theoretical U.S.-wide online market available across all 50 states would be worth $10.4bn in annual revenue at maturity.
GamblingCompliance expects New York, New Jersey, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be the largest sports-betting states by 2024, with Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan and Ohio also set to become major markets.
Lawmakers in New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Ohio are all actively discussing legislation to authorize or expand their sports-betting markets, although GamblingCompliance’s base-case assumes bills will not be passed until 2020 or 2021.
The Supreme Court’s ruling of May 14, 2018 overturned a 1992 federal law that essentially restricted legal sports wagering to Nevada.
Since then, seven other states have launched sportsbook operations and the ruling’s anniversary comes as a second wave of states move to pass their own legislation.
New laws in the District of Columbia, Montana and Indiana have all taken effect within the past ten days. State governors are currently considering bills passed by lawmakers in Colorado, Iowa and Tennessee, while New Hampshire, Louisiana and North Carolina are lined up to pass legislation before the end of June.
Indiana is projected to be the largest market of this "next wave" of states, according to the new GamblingCompliance forecasts. The Indiana market is expected to reach $260m in revenue in 2024, assuming sportsbooks are launched in casinos later this year followed by mobile operations a few months later.
GamblingCompliance projects Tennessee’s market, which will be limited to online/mobile wagering with a European-style open licensing framework, to be worth $165m in revenue by 2024 and more than $200m by its fifth full-year of operations.
U.S. Sports Betting Data Dashboard
Alongside updated forecasts, GamblingCompliance will also soon be releasing an enhanced version of our U.S. Sports Betting Data Dashboard, an interactive tool allowing users to project growth of the U.S. market according to any combination of legislative scenarios. New features will allow users to forecast the launch of states’ markets in six-month increments and project a staggered rollout of land-based and online betting where applicable. Going forward, GamblingCompliance will continue to revise our forecasts on a monthly basis via our U.S. Sports Betting Tracker service. To learn more about the Dashboard or Sports Betting Tracker, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.